The SJHL season and playoffs are cancelled, leaving the league鈥檚 title vacant and fans hungering for answers. Which team would win the league title? Which players would step up?
Using modern technology, The Reminder will try to find out.
The Reminder has created a full simulation of the second and final rounds of the SJHL, using the EA Sports video game NHL 20. Five full teams were created as part of the simulation process - Battlefords, Flin Flon, La Ronge, Melfort and Yorkton. Every player listed on each team鈥檚 playoff roster was created to fill the teams - 126 in total, including all goalies, defencemen and forwards.
The simulation is not meant as a direct prediction of how this year鈥檚 SJHL playoffs would have gone, but to show how, in the absence of COVID-19 and related cancellations, the playoffs could have gone.
More information on how the simulation was created and what to expect as a fan can be found below, but before that, we need to figure out what happened in the first round.
Placements
In real life, Flin Flon was the only SJHL team to punch their ticket to the second round of the playoffs before play was suspended, leaving the other three teams undetermined.
To save time in creating the simulation, both Battlefords and Melfort - who were ahead 3-1 in their series when the playoffs were suspended - advanced to the second round. Statistics for 3-1 series in the SJHL are not available, but in the NHL, teams up 3-1 in playoff series advance more than 90 per cent of the time.
That solution won鈥檛 work with the fourth remaining series - Yorkton vs. La Ronge. The real series was tied 2-2 when play was suspended, meaning a best-of-three simulation between the two sides would be needed to determine the final spot in the second round.
In a simulated Game 5, Yorkton took advantage of home ice to win 3-1, giving them a 3-2 series lead. In a win-or-go-home Game 6 for La Ronge, the Ice Wolves fought back and won 3-2, forcing a Game 7 in Yorkton.
With the final second round spot on the line, La Ronge scored by committee to advance, getting goals from Daylon Mannon, Rowan Barnes, Nolan Doell and an empty netter from Kyle Ford to win 4-1.
With all four spots filled, the two second round playoff series are set in the simulations. Since the SJHL playoffs involve reseeding between the first and second rounds, the top-seeded team will face the bottom-seeded team - meaning the Battlefords North Stars, seed number one, would play the fifth-seed La Ronge Ice Wolves and Flin Flon, the second-ranked team, would play third-seeded Melfort. In the season series between both matchups this year, Battlefords and Melfort hold the upper hand - Battlefords won all six games between the North Stars and Ice Wolves this season in real life, while Melfort beat the Bombers five out of six times this season.
Full post-game reports on all second-round simulated games can be found on the website and print editons of The Reminder.
Caveats
Since NHL 20 is a video game and has limitations, there is a long list of imperfections.
While the game鈥檚 Create A Team feature includes hundreds of different logos and dozens of different configurations of arenas, exact logos and arenas for SJHL teams are not available. Arena quirks such as the Whitney Forum鈥檚 leaner ice surface are out, too - all arenas have the standard 200 foot-by-85 foot surface. In addition, since all creatable arenas are on the same scale as modern NHL arenas in capacity and design, smaller venues like the Whitney Forum or the Mel Hegland Uniplex have been replaced by buildings that more resemble Bell MTS Place in Winnipeg.
NHL 20 games with full-length 20-minute periods typically end with an unrealistic number of shots, hits, fights and other statistics. To keep numbers realistic, the teams will play games with 10-minute periods.
The simulation is designed to look as similar to real life as possible, with jerseys, fonts, colours and goaltender equipment resembling their real-life counterparts as closely as the game allows.
Since altering each player鈥檚 likeness to match the real player is a time-consuming process, most player models will be the game鈥檚 default player model, with some notable exceptions - for example, the player model for Battlefords North Stars captain Matthew Fletcher, who plays with a full-face visor, will include the player wearing a similar visor.
Some players on playoff teams who had not played in some time, including Flin Flon鈥檚 Jaxon White, were not included in the simulation. Others who had been recently injured, such as Battlefords鈥� leading scorer Austin Becker, were assessed accordingly when given attributes.
Ratings
When creating players in NHL 20, each individual player is assigned a set of attributes ranging from zero to 100 to describe the player鈥檚 skill at specific things. A player with a precise wrist shot would be given a rating of 80 or above in wrist shot accuracy, while a player with a lousy shot would be rated 60 or below.
Each of the 126 created players received a customized ranking based on their season performance and possible strengths and weaknesses based on game scouting and film.
NHL 20 also gives a single number ranking from 0 to 100 to describe a player鈥檚 overall skill - the higher, the better.
While the SJHL is not featured in NHL 20, Canadian major junior leagues are, including the WHL. Players currently in the SJHL who had played in the WHL and who were already created in the game - including the Taphorn brothers, Keenan and Kaeden, who played for the WHL鈥檚 Moose Jaw Warriors before leaving to join Yorkton earlier this year - were used as comparisons for SJHL player rankings. On the whole, rankings for created SJHL players are slightly lower than those for WHL players, with additions or subtractions to ratings based on late regular season and first-round playoff performances.
The highest-rated created player was, unsurprisingly, Yorkton Terrier Chantz Petruic. In real life, Petruic won the league scoring title and awards as the SJHL Player of the Year and MVP, finishing the year with 58 goals and 109 points in just 52 games. In the simulation, Petruic received a rating of 66 overall, comparable with some top-six major junior players.
Other created players with high rankings included Battlefords鈥� Fletcher, this season鈥檚 SJHL defenceman of the year, who received a 62 overall rating. Flin Flon Bombers Cole Rafuse and Alec Malo were their team鈥檚 top players with 61 and 60 overall rankings. La Ronge Ice Wolf Daylon Mannon, who led his team in scoring this season, is rated 60, while Ice Wolf goalie Liam McGarva was ranked at 59. The highest-ranked goalie in the simulation is Melfort鈥檚 Shawn Parkinson, who has a 61 overall rating and is also Melfort鈥檚 highest-ranked player. Parkinson ended the regular season with four shutouts in his final five games, adding a strong playoff performance as well. Through four real playoff games against Estevan this year, Parkinson gave up only six goals.
Team rankings for overall strength, offence, defence and goaltending are also given based on the stats of each roster player. Out of the five created teams, Flin Flon had the strongest offence, with a ranking of 29 compared to Yorkton鈥檚 28, La Ronge鈥檚 27, Battlefords鈥� 26 and Melfort鈥檚 24. Battlefords boasted the strongest defence at 26 overall, while Melfort had the highest goaltending grade at 51. Battlefords received an overall grade of 30, while all four remaining teams received 29 overall ratings.
