One of the more intriguing mysteries about the late Jack Layton's career is why he didn't do better here.
After all, when Jack Layton started out as federal NDP leader, all he and his party had going for it was Saskatchewan.
When Layton inherited a rather moribund NDP in the wake of previous leaders Audrey McLaughlin and Alexa McDonough, the federal party was very close to an all-time low. In fact, so low was its national support base that one in four party memberships came from Saskatchewan. For that reason that the Montreal-born, Toronto city councillor made Regina his home away from home during his 2003 successful leadership bid.
There is little argument that his was a very successful career in federal politics. Since that 2003 leadership win, Layton outlasted no less than four Liberal leaders and two parties on right. And most significant to his legacy, Jack Layton outlasted the Bloc Quebecois, essentially replacing it as the voice of Quebec in the 2011 election that led to his party winning 103 seats nationality.
But strangely absent from Layton's political resume is electoral success in Saskatchewan. Since his selection as party leader, the NDP have failed to win a seat in the province many consider the NDP's home. Even the woeful Liberals were able to elect Ralph Goodale in Saskatchewan in all four elections when the NDP were shut out.
There are a number of factors as to why.
The first might that that Layton, for whatever national appeal he had in the latter years of his political career in particular, never connect especially well in Saskatchewan. Perhaps it was partly because of his roots in Eastern Canada. But one suspects that it the problem for Layton went beyond personality.
Layton's tenure also represented an era in which the NDP generally stopped connecting with Saskatchewan, especially rural Saskatchewan. It was clear that NDP were on the wrong side of the fence when it came issues like gun control and the Canadian Wheat Board. While Layton stood strong on social justice and environmental issues, Saskatchewan was more pre-occupied by its rise to economic prominence.
Conservative philosophy now reigns supreme in this province. Brad Wall's rather conservative-minded Saskatchewan Party government are polling at levels that would translate into a historic provincial victory. And federally, Conservative numbers have been similarly historic. The Conservative juggernaut won 46 per cent (and 86 per cent of the Saskatchewan seats) in 2006, 54 per cent (and 93 per cent of the seats) in 2008 and 56 per cent (and again 93 per cent of the seats) in 2011.
However, it is the disproportional success of the Conservatives that offers a much clearer picture of the Layton-NDP failings in Saskatchewan in the past decade.
With 26-and 32-per-cent of the vote in 2008 and 2011 respectively, there clearly should have been enough NDP support in Saskatchewan for the NDP to at least win a few seats. The problem is that the NDP vote was simply not concentrated enough in Saskatchewan and one has to look no further than the electoral map to see why.
The implementation of eight rural-urban seats prior to the 2004 vote seriously diluted the NDP's city base from which to could build its electoral success.
Of course, New Democrats have themselves to blame. Ironically, it was NDP MPs in the early 2000s that rejected what would have been a much more favourable electoral map without the split urban and rural seats. As a result, Layton's New Democrats were stuck with unfavourable rural-urban vote splits that have shut them out of Saskatchewan since 2004.
It's a strange blemish on Layton's political career that was all about revitalizing the NDP.
