You have to wonder how many people are going to be fired up about having a byelection in the summer months, even in the ridings where the votes are scheduled.
The governing Saskatchewan Party announced earlier this month that voters would go to the polls in three different constituencies – Lumsden-Morse, Regina-Coronation Park and Regina-Walsh Acres – on Aug. 10.
The Lumsden-Morse riding has been vacant since long-time СÀ¶ÊÓƵ Lyle Stewart stepped down for health reasons. Regina-Walsh Acres has been without a representative since Derek Meyers, who hailed from Midale, tragically died from cancer.
Meanwhile, Regina-Coronation Park has been without a representative in the legislature since Mark Docherty announced he was stepping down. Docherty hasn't endeared himself to the party's faithful of late after questioning the direction it has taken under Premier Scott Moe.
At any level, one of the fundamentals to success in an election is getting your voters to the polls. It's even more imperative in a byelection. Voter turnout is traditionally lower. People just aren't as interested as they are in a general election.
Remember last year when the Sask. Party pulled off a big upset over the New Democratic Party by winning a byelection in Athabasca – a riding that has traditionally been an NDP stronghold? The defeat was so bad for the NDP that it was seemingly the last straw in Ryan Meili's forgettable leadership of the party.
You can be sure the NDP will be saying "Yeah, but it was a byelection" when voters go to the polls in Athabasca next year. At the same time, when a favourite loses a byelection, they have nobody to blame but themselves.
It's pretty easy to predict who will win in Lumsden-Morse. It's long been a Sask. Party stronghold, regardless of what the constituency has been named. (It used to be Thunder Creek). If the Sask. Party were to lose, it would be an even bigger upset than when the NDP lost Athabasca.
But the Regina ridings will be interesting to watch. It's terrible that we're talking about the race in Regina-Walsh Acres. Meyers was elected to be the riding's СÀ¶ÊÓƵ in 2020, and many people no doubt thought the personable and articulate man who was a successful broadcaster would be the СÀ¶ÊÓƵ for years to come.
But his victory was relatively close, just 600 votes.
Docherty's win was even closer, at less than 300 votes. You have to wonder how many people in his riding agree with Docherty's recent comments.
The Sask. Party candidate also won't have the incumbent's advantage that Docherty had in 2020 after nearly a decade in the role.
If the Sask. Party wins three or even two of the ridings, they'll tout it as a reflection that they've chartered the province in the right direction, that they have created opportunities for everyone. The NDP will likely be pleased to win one of these seats, giving them six of the 12 Regina ridings in the legislature.
Two wins in Regina? They'd be celebrating, and you have to wonder if it means the Sask. Party would amend their direction.
The Sask. Party is at no risk of losing the next election. Not at this point. But they might find themselves with fewer СÀ¶ÊÓƵs come the October 2024 vote.
It's unfortunate that these votes are happening in the summer months when they could have occurred earlier. We know, there are limited opportunities to have elections in Saskatchewan. These ridings have been vacant since February and March.
Have an election in May? Farmers are seeding, although that wouldn't be as big of a deal in the Regina ridings. There's a lot of activities happening in June. But you would have had more attention for a mid-June vote than one in August.
People are away from home. They're at their cabin at a lake. They're enjoying outdoor activities. They aren't thinking about who to vote for in a by-election, unless they're really hooked on politics.
Consequently, interest and voter turnout will be low.
But it will still be interesting to see what transpires.