Calgary 鈥� 鈥淒epending on who wins, it鈥檚 the survival of the industry.鈥�
That鈥檚 what energy policy analyst, consultant, executive and writer David Yager thinks is the significance of this election, with reference to the oilpatch. He spoke to Pipeline News on Sept. 17.
鈥淚f we end up with this sort of worst-case scenario, with a Liberal Party government propped up by the Greens, like they did in B.C., which is when Andrew Weaver says, 鈥楯ump!鈥� John Horgan says, 鈥楬ow high?鈥�
鈥淭he times of surrender with the Green Party are climate plans. That is obviously a devastating scenario, where they do what she (Green Party Leader Elizabeth May) says, which is ban fracking, which really kills LNG exports, and stops Trans Mountain.
鈥淏ut that鈥檚 not going to happen,鈥� he said.
鈥淚f the Liberals need someone to prop them up in Ottawa, it鈥檚 more likely to be the Bloc Quebecois.
The issues facing the oilpatch in this election are numerous, according to Yager. The first is not interfering with liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. 鈥淭hat is the Number 1 issue. We talk about oil all the time, the price of oil and pipelines. But the real devastating damage has been caused by the collapse of natural gas. It some days sells for 10 per cent what it sold for at the turn of the century, and 25 per cent what it sold for in 2014. We have just got to get some gas out of the basin.鈥�
Next is finishing the Trans Mountain Expansion. Thirdly, don鈥檛 interfere with Enbridge Line 3 Replacement or Keystone XL. Political risk has been a big issue.
To get investor confidence to return to the oilpatch, he鈥檚 noted Jason Kenney needed to be elected as premier of Alberta, Trans Mountain Expansion needs to be built, and the federal election. He said, 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think a Liberal minority is as bad as it sounds, actually, if a Liberal minority is propped up by the Bloc. They鈥檒l finish LNG Canada.鈥�
Yager expects the tanker ban off the B.C. coast will be challenged in court by Indigenous groups, and 鈥渃ollapse under the weight of its own stupidity.鈥�
Similarly, he expects Bill C-69 will be amended over time.
Finishing LNG Canada is another important point.
There are two important oilsands projects that are still under consideration
鈥淚f you checked all those boxes, you wouldn鈥檛 know the place,鈥� he said, acknowledging a number of those items are outside of the election.
鈥淥bviously, a Conservative government is the best possible outcome. But we don鈥檛 see a lot of that.鈥�
In April, Yager released a self-published book entitled From Miracle to Menace: Alberta, a Carbon Story. It is available on Amazon.ca as either a hardcopy or ebook.
