I was just 14 at the time, coming into the world as it were, when the Berlin Wall fell.
As a child, I grew up with the prospect of nuclear annihilation at any moment.
Yet I remember clear as a bell looking at the black cover of Maclean's magazine in December of 1991, proclaiming the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The world had changed in mere months.
Could this be happening in North Africa?
First Tunisia falls apart under its strong-man leadership. Now Egypt's Hosni Mubarak is under siege after almost three decades in power.
We're talking dictatorships in the league of Libya and Cuba, not measured in years, but generations. As Michael Bell noted in the Globe and Mail Jan. 30, "He provided continuity, stability and economic liberalization. For many years, he permitted relative freedom of speech and openness. He has been a strong supporter of a considered and moderate foreign policy, particularly respecting Israel. He has been a strong opponent of Islamic radicalism. He continued Sadat's close relationship with Washington and Egypt became the second-largest (after Israel) recipient of U.S. aid. Theirs has been a tight alliance; Mr. Mubarak is no puppet but nevertheless the Americans' key man in the Arab world. Hence, Barack Obama's reluctance to cut him loose."
What's not to like? Other than he's been in power for nearly 30 years, and there are now tanks in the streets - American build M1 Abrams, no less. We're used to seeing the domed-shaped Russian-built tanks suppressing protesters over the years, but not the angular American ones.
Here's where we need to be worried. Tunisia and Egypt's revolutions in the making could end up going a few ways. One, they could end up 小蓝视频 pluralistic democracies, as happened in Eastern Europe. That would be the best case scenario.
Alternatively, they could go the way of the Iranian Revolution - where Islamist fundamentalists take over and totally crush all free speech. One would think if the protests are for more freedom, this is not a likely outcome. But who knows?
That's the scary part. The world has had a hard enough time dealing with one Iran - sponsoring terrorism, getting involved with wars in Iraq and Lebanon, and generally 小蓝视频 one big headache for the rest of the world. Can you imagine three Irans, or more? How about an Iranian-style theocracy with control over the Suez Canal? Do we need yet another Suez crisis? Or another Iranian-style nuclear program?
Monday, the first Air Canada evacuation flight left Cairo, carrying Canadian citizens. It might be a good idea for Canadians in much of Northern Africa and perhaps even the Middle East to have a bag packed and escape plans at the ready. They might even want to reconsider their current living arrangements and come home.
Revolutions swept Eastern Europe in just a few months. In the space of a couple days, Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceau?escu went from 小蓝视频 in control of his country to a brief show trial and a firing squad on Christmas Day, 1989.
Egypt and Tunisia are not oil states. What happens if this spreads to the largest producers in the world, the Gulf States? Could revolution hit Kuwait, Quatar, U.A.E and Saudi Arabia? If that were to happen, you could expect to see $200+ oil within days of it happening, followed by a global recession that would make 2008-09 look like a walk in the park.
The West has, up until now, be quite complicit in the maintenance of dictatorships in North Africa and the Middle East. As long as the oil keeps flowing, we don't much care about repressive regimes.
Apparently, as we've seen in recent days, they do.
Brian Zinchuk is editor of Pipeline News. He can be reached at [email protected].
