Story:As usual, all real threats for a World Series title begin in the AL East except this time we can rule out Tampa Bay as a legitimate threat after a thorough dismantling of a fine roster. The Yanks stood pat while the Sox spent like I said they would never do. Watching DH David Ortiz get old helped pull the trigger on the Gonzalez and Crawford deals. Have I ever mentioned I'd like to barbeque Dustin Pedroia, except there is no meat on his bones? He is to the MLB what Sean Avery is to the NHL.
1) Boston Red Sox - admitting the Sox are the favourites is more painful than pulling my own teeth out, which I will do if they actually win.
Losing Beltre will cost them a Gold Glove at third base, but Youkilis is a more consistent hitter. Beltre has a big year every time his contract comes up then coasts for four years. Picking up Adrian Gonzalez at first base is huge, and his lefty swing suits that short porch in right.
The starting rotation looks great and look for Lackey to put up better numbers, as Dice-K begins his slow fade.
The bullpen is not as deep, but I still look for Bard to take over the closer role and bring in some depth in exchange for Papelbon, especially if they fall out of contention.
Adding Carl Crawford was a bold and expensive move. He'll steal 60 bases, but has minimal power for a corner outfielder.
2) New York Yankees - Jeter, Posada and Rivera are nearing the end of the line but the Yankees have a ridiculous wealth of young talent at catcher and picked up Canadian Russell Martin to tide them over until the youngsters mature. The strength will be a deadly bullpen with three quality southpaws and the signing of Rivera's eventual successor in ex-Ray closer Rafael Soriano, who saved 45 games and had a 1.73 ERA. Losing Pettitte will hurt, but 610? Andrew Brackman looks ready to step in. Phil Hughes will be a solid 15 to 18 game winner and is now in the number two slot. Nobody worries about annual Cy Young candidate CC Sabathia.
Finding a fifth starter will not come from inviting dinosaurs like Bartolo Colon to camp. Freddie Garcia might have something left in the tank. The key is the erratic AJ Burnett, who can be either brilliant and electric or more like a Canadian Tire solar lamp during a two-week stretch of cloudy weather.
The outfield is intact, but both A-Rod and Teixeira need to return to MVP form.
3) Tampa Bay Rays - The rotation will recover from the loss of Garza and will be offset by the arrival of Hellickson. Price moves into the alpha-male role and Shields, Davis and Nienmann round out the best part of their club.
The bullpen was torn apart by free agency and grabbing Farnsworth will give the handful of Rays fans stiff necks watching his gopher balls.
Offence is going to be an issue unless super-prospect Desmond Jennings does an immediate Carl Crawford impersonation because BJ Upton is running out of chances. Talent eventually translates to good stats and Upton is all flash, no bash. Damon and Ramirez will be more destructive than productive. Their best days are long gone.
4) Baltimore Orioles - The emergence of slugging catcher Matt Weiters and the signing of Derek Lee should help put some runs on the board.
Markakis is the best thing to come out of Greece since souvlaki and letting Felix Pie finally let his amazing athleticism loose for an entire season is long overdue.
The rotation is average and that's why they'll finish fourth and ex-Jays failure Kevin Gregg anchors a bullpen of has-beens and wannabes. Look for Mike Gonzalez to take over from Gregg once he loses confidence. A steady and productive infield give the Orioles just enough to beat you know who.
5) Toronto Blue Jays - Solid and youthful pitching and a comeback by Aaron Hill will keep them within range of .500 ball. Drabek will emerge as a bona fide MLB starter and if Cecil and Romero continue to improve, then they will keep games close. Brendan Morrow had arm problems near the end of 2010 and I look for his arm to fall out of its socket by mid-summer.
Dumping Wells frees up cash to sign other players, but nobody wants to play in Toronto anymore. Untested but athletic Rajai Davis in centre will be an adventure. He can run but has zero power.The rest of the offence comes from Bautista who will fall somewhere near his career numbers that are a far cry from the 2010 anomaly. Lind will look foolish at first base for a year of two, but should rebound if his numbers against lefties improve.
Plodding Juan Rivera in left field will cost them a run per game but he'll hit 15 to 20 homers in the Rogers Centre.
It's a make or break season for Travis Snider whose raw power is without question. Making contact and playing a decent right field will be a tough act.
As long as John McDonald is on the active roster they have a chance to finish last. The organization needs me to run it and I'd quickly trade it for one last date with a certain nurse who is my best editor but pays just as poorly as the rest of them.
The Jays have less of a chance at success than I do with either this journalistic adventure or with the nurse.
