NEW YORK (AP) 鈥� Moviegoing, once expected to be closer to semi-normal levels by now, continues to be battered by the pandemic, the delta variant of the coronavirus and in-home streaming. The latest casualty: James Gunn's a critically acclaimed, carnage-ridden would-be smash that disappointed with $26.5 million in estimated ticket sales.
The Warner Bros. film, which was released simultaneously on HBO Max, could claim one pandemic record: the top R-rated opening. But 鈥淭he Suicide Squad,鈥� featuring the 鈥淕uardians of the Galaxy鈥� director's first DC Comics film, had seemed poised to be a bigger hit 鈥� and may have been if the delta variant wasn't keeping a lot of moviegoers home.
Jeff Goldstein, distribution chief for Warner Bros., acknowledged the recovery is taking longer than anyone hoped.
鈥淲e always knew the ramp-up would be two steps forward and one step back," Goldstein said. "But when we鈥檙e living it, it鈥檚 not great."
As recently as a month ago, the outlook for movie theaters was brightening. Marvel鈥檚 鈥淏lack Widow鈥� set a pandemic-best mark with . Now, that movie鈥檚 hybrid release is the focus of that has larger ramifications for the economics of big-budget movies in the streaming era.
More importantly, COVID cases in the United States have since rocketed 鈥� from a few thousand daily infections to . That has led some to curtail indoor activities and some states to consider changing regulations. New York is planning to make vaccination a requirement for indoor dining and other venues, including movie theaters.
鈥淚 think avid moviegoers have returned to theaters, and they show up first night and through the weekend," Goldstein said. "But what we're not seeing is the casual moviegoers 鈥� those who were interested and would have gone in a pre-pandemic context. Right now, they're not quite there.鈥�
The result for 鈥淭he Suicide Squad鈥� 鈥� strong reviews, underwhelming opening 鈥� is a kind of inverse to 2016's 鈥淪uicide Squad,鈥� which was lambasted by critics but also made a lot of money. The film, directed by David Ayer (who has since called the film 鈥渘ot my cut鈥�), opened with $133.7 million in the U.S. and Canada, eventually grossing $745 million worldwide.) In part because of fan backlash to DC titles like 鈥淭he Suicide Squad,鈥� .
Gunn's movie, a sequel-reboot that returns some cast members but not others, drew good reviews (92% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), already has a series spinoff starring John Cena upcoming and was largely endorsed by moviegoers with a B+ CinemaScore. The film stars Idris Elba, Margot Robbie, Viola Davis and Joel Kinnaman. Not back: Will Smith or Jared Leto.
鈥淭he Suicide Squad鈥� cost about $185 million to make, but the current state of the box office doesn't offer much of a chance for profitability for movies at that scale. Warner didn't release any streaming or subscription data related to the 鈥淭he Suicide Squad," but Goldstein said that every release has seen 鈥渁 proportional response鈥� on HBO Max that correlates to its popularity in theaters. If it's a hit in theaters, it's a hit on streaming.
Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst for data firm Comscore, said that while he believes day-and-date releases can hurt a movie's box office, the dominant variable is still the pandemic.
鈥淭oday is a very different marketplace than it was even just a few weeks ago, which makes any kind of long-term proclamations as to what's going on with the movie industry or movie theaters very challenging,鈥� Dergarabedian said. 鈥淭he desire for going to the movies is there, but the marketplace is in flux.鈥�
Last week's top film, Disney's even pricier 鈥淛ungle Cruise,鈥� also collecting $34 million in the U.S. and Canada against a reported budget of $200 million. While most titles this year have fallen fast after release, 鈥淛ungle Cruise鈥� held reasonably well, dropping 55% in its second week with $15.7 million. Globally, it has totaled $122 million. That doesn't include the $30 million Disney said 鈥淛ungle Cruise鈥� made in its first weekend in 鈥渆arly access鈥� purchases on Disney+. (Disney didn't share updated streaming revenue in the movie's second week.)
If COVID-19 cases don't drop soon, studios will be faced with the difficult question of what to do with upcoming tentpole releases 鈥� especially distributors that aren't as tethered to streaming platforms. Eyes will be on how MGM handles the James Bond film 鈥淣o Time to Die鈥� (Oct. 8) and whether Sony holds with 鈥淰enom: Let There Be Carnage鈥� (Sept. 24). Paramount recently postponed the release of 鈥淐lifford the Big Red Dog鈥� citing the rise of the delta variant.
鈥淐urrently, this is an unforgiving market,鈥� said David A. Gross, who runs the movie consultancy firm Franchise Entertainment Research. 鈥淭he last couple of big movies have been flawed. Under normal conditions, a strong marketing campaign can overcome a few drawbacks and generate a good weekend. Under current conditions, that isn鈥檛 happening.鈥�
Goldstein said that if not for the streaming half of its releases, Warner Bros. wouldn't likely be opening films like 鈥淭he Suicide Squad.鈥�
鈥淲e've definitely declared that a day-and-date strategy with HBO Max is not our plan and it's not what we're going to do in 2022. But if we didn't do this in 2021, we couldn't afford the marketing, let alone it would have been ridiculous to put the movies out," Goldstein said. 鈥淚t's definitely a complicated time.鈥�
Some independent films have still found relative success. starring Matt Damon, added $2.9 million to bring its two-week total past $10 million for Focus Features. David Lowery's grossed $2.6 million to bring its two-week gross to $12.2 million.
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Follow AP Film Writer Jake Coyle on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/jakecoyleAP
Jake Coyle, The Associated Press
