WASHINGTON (AP) 鈥� The International Monetary Fund is slightly downgrading its outlook for the global recovery from the pandemic recession, reflecting the persistence of supply chain disruptions in industrialized countries and deadly disparities in vaccination rates between rich and poor nations.
In its latest World Economic Outlook 小蓝视频 released Tuesday, the IMF foresees global growth this year of 5.9%, compared with its projection in July of 6%.
鈥淭he global recovery continues but the momentum is hobbled by the pandemic,鈥� IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath told reporters at a briefing.
For the United Sates, the world's largest economy, the IMF predicts growth of 6% for 2021, below its July forecast of 7%. The downward revision reflects a slowdown in economic activity resulting from a rise in COVID-19 cases and delayed production caused by supply shortages and a resulting acceleration of inflation.
The IMF predicts that for the world's advanced economies as a whole, growth will amount to 5.2% this year, compared with a meager predicted gain of 3% for low-income developing countries.
鈥淭he dangerous divergence in economic prospects across countries," the IMF said, 鈥渞emains a major concern.鈥�
The monetary fund expects the total output from advanced economies to recoup the losses they suffered during the pandemic by 2022 and to exceed their pre-pandemic growth path by 2024.
But in emerging and developing countries outside of China, the IMF warns, output will remain an estimated 5.5% below the output growth path that the IMF had been forecasting before the pandemic struck in March of last year. That downgrade poses a serious threat to living standards in those countries, the monetary fund said.
The IMF attributed that economic divergence to the sizable disparities in vaccine access between wealthy and low income countries. It said the outlook for poorer countries had 鈥渄arkened considerably,鈥� reflecting the surge in cases of the delta variant that has elevated the COVID death toll worldwide to nearly 5 million.
While nearly 60% of the population in advanced economies are fully vaccinated, only about 4% of the population in the poorer countries are.
Gopinath said it should be a top priority to meet the goal of vaccinating at last 40% of the population in every country by the end of this year and 70% of the population in every country by the middle of next year.
She said to achieve these levels, wealthy countries such as the United States would have to fulfill the commitments they have made to supply vaccines to poorer nations.
鈥淩ecent developments have made it abundantly clear that we are all in this together and the pandemic is not over any where until it is over everywhere,鈥� Gopinath said. She said the IMF projected that if COVID were to continue to have a prolonged impact it would reduce global output by $5.3 trillion over the next five years compared to the IMF's current forecast.
Along with lagging vaccination levels, poorer nations face headwinds from a spike in inflation, with food prices rising the most in low-income countries, the IMF said.
The 5.9% rise in global output 小蓝视频 forecast in the IMF outlook would represent a sizable gain after a 3.1% decline in output because of the pandemic last year. For 2022, the IMF foresees an expansion of 4.9%, unchanged from its July forecast.
The 6% gain in U.S. growth this year follows a deep 3.4% contraction in 2020. The IMF expects solid U.S. growth of 5.2% in 2022. For the 19 nations that use the euro currency, the IMF predicts a 5% expansion this year and 4.3% in 2022.
China, the world鈥檚 second-largest economy, is expected to register growth of 8% this year, down slightly from the IMF鈥檚 forecast of 8.1% in July, with growth of 5.6% in 2022.
The new World Economic Outlook was prepared for this week鈥檚 fall meetings of the 190-nation IMF and its sister lending organization, the World Bank, as well as of finance ministers and central bank presidents of the Group of 20 major industrial countries. It was released hours after in its managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, in response to allegations that while serving as a senior World Bank official, she and others pressured staffers to change business rankings in an effort to placate China.
The IMF鈥檚 24-member executive board said in a statement that a review it conducted 鈥渄id not conclusively demonstrate鈥� that Georgieva played an improper role in the situation.
鈥淗aving looked at all the evidence presented, the executive board reaffirms its full confidence in the managing director鈥檚 leadership and ability to continue to effectively carry out her duties,鈥� it said.
Asked about the data controversy Gopinath told reporters that the controversy had involved a World Bank report and not an IMF publication. She said the IMF board had made it clear that it had 鈥渇ull confidence in the impartiality and the excellence of the analytical work of the IMF.鈥�
Among the agenda items for the meetings this week will be efforts to persuade rich nations to fulfill their pledges to boost the level of vaccines going to poor countries as well as a discussion among the G-20 countries over a just-announced global agreement for a 15% minimum tax on corporate profits. Once the agreement is reviewed by G-20 finance officials, it is expected to be endorsed at a leaders鈥� summit of G-20 countries in Rome.
Martin Crutsinger, The Associated Press
