YORKTON - With the result of the recent American election in, ‘Pandora’s Box’ seems very much to be wide open, and certainly a wild card has emerged.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House is going to change many things – whether any of those changes are positive in the long run is very much in question though.
Initially at least US markets have reacted positively, but that is hardly a surprise, Trump has always been ‘pro business’. What that means though is unclear. Suggestions of deregulation will certainly play well in board rooms, but depending on what exactly the changes might be it could be bad news for the environment and even for the rights of workers.
In terms of Canadian agriculture and trade in general, which of course is critical here, it’s likely to get a lot more complicated – and as a result costly – to access American markets with at least some commodities. Trump has always talked a very pro-America before all banter, and that will be likely lead to more trade confrontations.
But the Trump effect of Canadian exports will be more than the direct flow of commodities over the 49th parallel.
If trade relations with Canada are likely to be more strained, they may pale compared to Trump’s trade policies in terms of relations with China, or sanctions on Iran, or issues with oil flow from Venezuela, all disputes which would have splash effects on Canada and other trading nations.
How Trump chooses to deal with the current war undertaken by Israel will be significant in terms of trade. A wrong step – something we might expect from a wild card president -- could easily destabilize the Middle East.
Trump may also move to abandon Ukraine in terms of supporting their war effort against Russian invasion. That would be bad for Ukraine, but the ripple effect could be far more serious. It could embolden Russian leader Vladimir Putin who we know has expansionist dreams beyond Ukraine.
That would put pressure on NATO to be ready to respond, and Trump has said the US might well abandon that organization too – which has to be as they say, music to Putin’s ears too.
Any move that inches tensions closer to an expanded war in Europe will impact markets and trade which will be something farmers in Canada will need to watch closely as they try to plan and budget from the next four years.
How fast Trump wades into the more controversial suggestions from the campaign trail and how far he is actually willing to go remains to be seen, but there is little doubt it will be a bumpy ride for the world.
