There鈥檚 a bit of a debate right now about what is going to happen to movies in the future.
This is, naturally, driven by the pandemic, where people generally can鈥檛 go to the theatre and watch anything. Because the theatres are all closed, and nobody can go there anyway, everything is moving to streaming services. I don鈥檛 expect this to continue past 2021.
This won鈥檛 be an argument about the magic of the theatre-going experience. As much fun as it can be at the theatre, that depends very much on the quality of the theatre you鈥檙e going to, their seats and concessions, and the audience that you鈥檙e with. This is instead going to be about pure money. If the theatres don鈥檛 reopen, expect the current crop of superhero-driven multi-million dollar blockbusters to die.
The shift to streaming this year is largely because these movies have already been made and they have to get them out because the next crop of superhero-driven blockbusters has already been planned. These movies are expensive, they鈥檙e planned years in advance, and there鈥檚 a strict schedule to keep. Delaying one means the delay of maybe 10 or 20 movies, all still in production, all part of this elaborate web of extended universes that studios have constructed to ensure that audiences need to know the details of several movies just to get a grasp of what鈥檚 going on in one. So it makes sense that they just want to get these things in front of audiences, the box office of 2022 depends on it.
But the box office is why a permanent shift to streaming will kill this type of movie. It makes sense to spend over $350 million on a movie if you stand to make over $2.7 billion when the movie is finally released. It doesn鈥檛 make that much sense if the movie goes direct to streaming. Even the streaming giants like Netflix and Disney+ aren鈥檛 going to stand to make multiple billions of dollars because of one movie on their service.
Think of it like this, the most recent Star Wars film cost $275 million, but that made sense for a movie. Each person excited to see a new Star Wars movie is going to go at least once, some will go multiple times, and each individual viewer is going to pay for the privilege each time they see it for the first couple of months. It鈥檚 one product that can keep making money for a sustained length of time.
But for streaming, that doesn鈥檛 work. Even if you watch a film multiple times, you鈥檙e not making the studio any more money - for the first month, a film makes the majority of its box office take, while for the first month of a streaming service they get the same fee no matter how many times you watch it. It鈥檚 not possible for that movie to pay for itself
Instead, the successful streaming Star Wars, the Mandalorian, is actually cheaper to produce - it鈥檚 rumored that the budget for the entire first season was about $100 million - and it鈥檚 spread out over multiple episodes. That spread means that avid fans are paying at least two months of subscription, and are maintaining that subscription in anticipation of future seasons. It鈥檚 a much more profitable endeavor.
Superheroes won鈥檛 go away entirely, but it doesn鈥檛 make sense to make the current blockbusters without theatres to play them in.
