When it comes to livestock disease the Canadian agriculture sector is keenly aware of how devastating they can be in terms of impacting trade.聽
The Canadian beef sector was shaken to its foundation when聽Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy聽(BSE) was initially found in a single Alberta cow in 2003.聽
Trade in beef and live cattle exports ground to a halt, and the border closures ripples to the sheep and bison sector too.聽
Imagine if the disease not only closed export doors over possible human health impacts, but also led to massive deaths of livestock too.聽
That is the situation that has occurred in China in the past year, or so, as African Swine Fever has ravished to pork industry.聽
The disease hit the massive Chinese swine herd hard with a huge percentage of the heard lost.聽
It had been suggested by the Chinese government that the disease was under control, and pig numbers on course to return to pre-ASF numbers, but that may be good old fashioned government rhetoric.聽
Other sources reported in farm media suggest a third wave has taken hold, this time a mutated strain of聽ASF, that while less deadly has still reportedly contributed to聽loss estimates over the past winter and earlier this spring ranging from about 20 per cent of the herd to more than 50 per cent.聽
Whichever number is correct, it鈥檚 a lot of pigs given聽as of April 2021,聽China聽was home to the largest number of聽pigs聽of any country with 406 million head, according to聽
The situation of ASF in China is of interest to Canadian farmers for a variety of reasons starting with keeping a diligent eye on biosecurity to ensure the disease does not hit here and devastate the Canadian pork sector.聽
The situation is also notable for Canadian grain producers because a return to pre-ASF numbers in China will mean a greater demand for feed grains, and Canadian barley and feed wheat, and potentially canola meal, are possible feed exports to meet the demand.聽
Of course if ASF continues to lead to losses in China, then pork exports from this country becomes a possible backfill for Chinese demand which is good for the agriculture sector here.聽
And, finally, ASF rolling through the pig population on waves may provide some clues to how pandemics work, and while we might feel we are past the worst of COVID-19 in the human population, one mutant variant that has found its way past the current crop of vaccines could change that quickly.聽
The more we learn of how a pandemic works in waves, the better off we will be.
