The future of aviation growth and success in Saskatchewan will be tied to the growth and success of the overall provincial economy, and the province will be influenced from abroad.At least that is the view of Kim Lonsdale, Director Resources with Enterprise Saskatche-wan."The growth of Saskatchewan's aviation sector will move in tandem with the economic growth of India and China." he told those attending the 2010 Wings of Saskatchewan Conference held in Yorkton.Lonsdale said Enter-prise Saskatchewan has identified key economic drivers in the province, and for a province heavily focused on the exports of agriculture, energy and mining, that will mean the Far East will be important moving forward."I believe the aviation sector's future is directly tied to these economic drivers," he said.In terms of Saskatchewan's place in the world, people often don't realize just what we have here.As an example, if a country itself, Saskatchewan would be the 43rd largest country in the world, larger than France. The forest area is larger than Italy, the province's lake and rivers would cover Ireland.Lonsdale also pointed out that in terms of trade Saskatchewan is also a significant player.In the case of potash the province has 54 per cent of the world's proven reserves, and does about 31 per cent of world trade.The reserves are massive, he added suggesting it could be "mined for the next 1,000 years at current rates."Saskatchewan also carries out 26 per cent of world trade in uranium from eight per cent of world reserves, and has an established reserve of 42 billion barrels of oil, although a significantly portion of that will "require technology to get out of the ground."As large as resource reserves are, Lonsdale added "Saskatchewan is less than 50 per cent explored," in terms of oil and gas and minerals.That is changing though, with exploration spending growing from $50 million in 2008 to $500 million this year. The current explorative work "will impact us 30, 30, 40-years out," said Lonsdale, adding "it will be significant."That work will lead to new developments."The likelihood of new potash mines, yes plural, is very high," said Lonsdale.In the field of agriculture trade is also huge, said Lonsdale."We're a trade giant in food," he said.While the resource reserves and the ability to produce agricultural products is significant, Lonsdale said they become more important as the world demand grows for both. The growth in demand is a natural when you consider the current world population of 6.9 billion is expected to grow to nine billion by 2050.The growth in population will mean "massive demand for food and energy," said Lonsdale.However, Lonsdale added, "it's not just about people. It's about more people with money."In terms of increased wealth, Lonsdale said the average annual income in China today is $4,100. That is expected to grow to $21,000 by 2050.With more money the Chinese will want more goods, cars meaning the need for oil, and changes to diet, particularly adding more meat to the diet.
In 1952 the annual red meat consumption in China was two kilograms per capita. By 1985 it was 20, reaching 50 in 2000, and 62.5 in 2009. By comparison it is 100 kgs in Canada and 131 in Denmark, said Lonsdale.
Each pound of meat produce requires "three to eight pounds of coarse grains to produce," he said, adding that too is good for Saskatchewan since China will not produce the grain themselves. With 20 per cent of the world's population, China has "only seven per cent of the world's arable land."
Even on the farmland which does exist in China, production is good news for Saskatchewan, said Lonsdale.
"They can only feed their people if they use potash," he said.
Lonsdale said it is possible to go without added potash for a year, as occurred in 2009, but that simply means crops further deplete soil reserves, which must be eventually replenished. That is why potash sales have doubled this year, and are expected to grow another 30 per cent in 2011.
On the oil side, Lonsdale said China "is likely to double the number of cars in the next 20-years." That will mean a massive need for oil in a world where reserves are shrinking.
Lonsdale said OPEC country oil reserves are over-estimated, and Mexican and North Sea reserves are running out. That will mean a need for Saskatchewan-sourced oil.
Energy reserves include alternate sources such as wind too, said Lonsdale,"The southwest (of the province), will be a wind giant some day," he said.
With the world's growing demand powering the economy in Saskatchewan moving forward, Lonsdale said the aviation sector will be taken along for the ride.
"When our economy booms, we fly more," he said, adding more goods and more people take to the air in good times. "You will be at the leading edge of this," he told those at the Conference.
