Millions of acres of canola and wheat growing in Saskatchewan under recent hot, dry weather could be the first average harvest in years.
鈥淲e鈥檙e coming out of a really tough couple of years,鈥� said Derek Dery, who runs a farm west of Saskatoon. An average harvest could be a relief after and
鈥淚 am very thankful for the crops that we have. It鈥檚 been one thing that I haven鈥檛 really been stressed out about,鈥� Dery said, adding that he expects a modest profit.
On the whole, COVID-19 has generally been favourable for wheat, canola and pulse farmers as uncertainty leads governments and households to stock up. Neil Townsend, market analyst with FarmLink Marketing Solutions, said it鈥檚 unclear how long that will last.
Despite China placing restrictions on Canadian canola last year, he said exports continue, albeit at lower rates. That comes as a lower U.S. dollar possibly helps commodity prices, and as other buyers like the European Union import Canadian canola crops.
Wheat prices still aren鈥檛 as encouraging as prices for canola and pulses, Townsend said. He recommends farmers sell 50 to 60 per cent of those crops earlier than normal. Risk persists in the market and 鈥渁 price you see today, that doesn鈥檛 need to be there,鈥� he said.
That could mean recent prices like $11 for a bushel of canola were a strong level to begin selling new crops, noted Adam Pukalo, a commodities advisor at PI Financial Corp.
A volatile market means he recommends selling between a quarter and a half of new crops 鈥� although uncertainty has led some of his clients to resist committing to that.
鈥淲hat happens if there鈥檚 a hail storm here in August and they鈥檙e locked in on those contracts?鈥� he said.
One such storm dealt a blow to farmer Guy McCrea鈥檚 fields near Zenon Park, about 250 kilometres northeast of Saskatoon.
Earlier storm damage on his farm ranged from five per cent to 100 per cent. McCrea doesn鈥檛 believe those crops will recover before this year鈥檚 frost. While he kept most of his canola, he lost up to 30 bushels per acre.
鈥淥ptimistic? I wouldn鈥檛 say that. We鈥檙e hoping for a good below average crop,鈥� he said. 鈥�(For) some of the fields, we鈥檙e hoping we can get back what we put into them.鈥�
Devastating early season storms are a shared story across the Prairies this summer, said Rick Omelchenko, president of the Canadian Crop Hail Association. Saskatchewan wasn鈥檛 hit as hard as Alberta, but its losses still outweighed Manitoba鈥檚, he said.
Damages likely equalled the five-year average after spikes in June and July, he added.
鈥淭he earlier the storms and the earlier the stage of growth, the less severe damage occurs that affects farmer yields. But from now on it affects it drastically. We鈥檙e getting some storms now that are just decimating all the crops.鈥�
Other farmers like Hilda Tieszen near Hepburn, about 50 kilometres north of Saskatoon, questioned whether there will be reduced growth from lack of rain. The answer will wait until her farm starts harvesting next week, she said.
鈥淲e don鈥檛 know (how) the crops will turn out.鈥�
The strength in commodity prices and demand for Saskatchewan farmers鈥� products could nonetheless remain positives for farmers like Tieszen, said Todd Lewis, president of the Agricultural Producers Association of Saskatchewan.
鈥淭he idea of an average cop is certainly there,鈥� Lewis said.
鈥淚t鈥檚 always the time of year where there鈥檚 a little bit of uncertainty. You don鈥檛 really know until the combines hit the field, just what your yield is going to be exactly.鈥�
